Covid 19 times: Can the world be this kind, always?

Covid 19 has brought the world to a standstill. Over four Billion people are under lockdown across the world, and all sectors which are not essential, are closed. Even during the recession of 2008, or the great depression in the 1930s, many important sectors like the manufacturing, retail trade, were open; even though the volume of business saw a steep decline. Developed and developing nations alike, rich and poor alike, the corona virus did not spare anyone who stood in its way. 

Covid 19 is a highly infectious disease caused by SARS COV2 virus, which was first identified in Wuhan in Dec 2019. The World Health Organisation has declared Covid 19 an International Public Health Emergency on the 30th of Jan 2020, and a Pandemic on the 11th of March 2020. As on today, 13th April, Covid 19 has infected close to 1.9M people across the world, and over 115,000 people died from the disease. Close to 70% of the infections are in the US and Europe together, and over 80% deaths are also from these regions; ironically the regions which had some of the best healthcare systems in the world. 

As in any Global catastrophe, Covid 19 has hit the poor very hard. With the entire unorganised sector coming to a grinding halt, millions of people were pushed into unemployment all of a sudden. Daily wage labourers working in construction, manufacturing, and other small scale jobs, are jobless all of a sudden. With no income, and no way to provide for their families, millions of people across the world face the most basic challenge - food. To share few statistics, India's unemployment may have risen to 23% by April 5th, from 6% just weeks ago, as per Center for Monitoring Indian Economy. In the US, over 3 Million people applied for unemployment benefits in April, compared to the previous highest of 600,000 in the 1980s. With Covid 19 still rampant across the globe, most countries are looking to extend the lockdowns, which could be devastating for the poor and under privileged. 

The situation across some of the African countries is most worrisome. With a weak healthcare infrastructure, we can only hope that the damage in these countries can be contained quickly. I was reading about possible outbreaks of Covid 19 in war stricken regions like Yemen, Syria etc; I sincerely pray that these nations do not come in the path of the virus. Situation across the world is concerning, and we can talk about various countries and the damage to lives, economies, that Covid 19 has caused. But, in the next few paragraphs, I would limit myself to only India.

The lockdown in India was started from the 25th of March 2020, and it was announced on the 24th of March 2020. It caused mass panic across the country. Thousands of migrant workers across cities started to look for ways to get home, facing unemployment in their current cities. Really heartbreaking scenes from across the country as the reality of a sudden lockdown started to sink in. State Governments were not prepared to handle to the scale of commotion, and have started scrambling for ways to control the mass exodus. Various shelter homes were prepared within 1-2 days, which can hold thousands and lacs of workers, with access to free food. State Governments started distribution of ration (Rice, Dal and few other perishables) through various channels. Situation looks to have come under control only after 10 days of lock down. 

This led to a nation wide outcry, with people demanding the Governments to act fast. Commendable statements were made by Chief Ministers of many states, pledging to provide immediate support, free rations to the needy, and arrange for help in anyway possible. Many companies pledged hundreds of crores of rupees, to fight the damage caused by the pandemic. NGOs across the country sprang into action. Hundreds of crores of Rupees were raised within days, and distribution of aid started across the country. PM Cares (Prime Minister's Citizen assistance and Relief in Emergency Situations) received more than 6500 crore Rupees (close to 1B USD), in just one week.

People across the country felt the pain, and rose to action. This is the first time I experienced help coming in from so many people, in their own ways, through donations or through distribution of aid. Stories of celebrities pledging crores of Rupees, to children breaking their piggy banks to donate to Covid 19 relief, the stories were just amazing. NGOs raising money required for various campaigns within days, helped them to accelerate their efforts and start new campaigns. For Ex: Give India's campaign for 25Cr Rupees was completed within few days, and they started another campaign for 25 Crore Rupees. Many people started their own channels through which aid was being distributed. FeedmyBangalore, FeedmyHyderabad were started by group of entrepreneurs, which were later extended to 3 more cities, and more than a Million meals were distributed within weeks. Companies mobilised efforts to help their own freelance partners who were left without work. For Ex: Ola started its own campaign, so did Uber, Rapido, Swiggy and many other firms. Such extraordinary acts of kindness by so many individuals, corporates, governments, in a concerted way to solve one big crisis, is really heartwarming. People determined to help in anyway possible, and take the nation through this crisis, is one of the few encouraging news in otherwise gloomy times. 

This is the first time I experienced such a large mobilisation of relief. Can the world always be this kind? India has been battling many many issues since the past few decades, and fellow citizens coming forward to solve some of these issues, can do wonders. Basic necessities like Education, Healthcare are luxuries for at least 1/3rd of Indians, and there are many other issues like Children's rights, Retirement facilities (care for the old), Agriculture improvement, Rural development, poverty, which need urgent attention. The country needs this kindness after Covid 19 passes. 

The Pursuit of Inclusive Growth

It was 2010, and around six months after the death of a beloved Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh, Dr Y S Rajashekar Reddy. I was in a B School interview, when the panel suddenly starts a new line of questions on politics of AP. It then led to the rule of YSR, and his ambitious goals for inclusive growth in the state. Inclusive growth is where the economic growth creates growth and opportunities to all sections of the society. All people participate in the economic growth, directly or indirectly. The pursuit of inclusive growth involves investment in sectors like Agriculture, Industrial development, Education and Healthcare, Social welfare projects etc. Looking back to my interview question, for YSR to have Inclusive Growth as broad vision, in a developing country like India, is commendable.

With population growth across the world, the last 100 years has brought in a drastic divide between the people. Uber rich, extreme poor, were rarely used in the context of the 19th century world. Many events which happened in the last 100 years, like the world wars, the recessions, or the regional conflicts, which have only worsened the problem. The difference of income, and the lack of inclusive growth is visible not only in the developing countries, but also the developed world.

Let us look at the graph which indicates the total income of top 1% vs the total income of bottom 50%. Its shows a staggering and also frightening trend. The US being a capitalist economy always thrived on successful industries and businesses, and the consumerist lifestyle of the 20th century only added fuel to the fire. But should the Governments be doing enough to protect the bottom 50% of the people.  

What about the next graph. This is the Consumer price index of Housing, Education and all items. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food and medical care. It is calculated by taking price changes for each item in the predetermined basket of goods and averaging them. The cost of Education, has grown at a rate which is at least 5-6 times the rate of growth of other items. 

How can Education become so commercial?

Isn't Education a basic necessity? 
Should the Government have safety nets for most basic needs like Education, Health etc?

The charts are only of US, and are not indicative of other countries. With people and Governments across the world taking the US as the ideal model of development, till at least a decade ago if not now, most of us are going in the same direction. The story is the same in China to Japan to Europe to Asia; some better than the rest. The gap between rich and poor increasing; the most basic necessities are quickly going off reach of most people. 

The world population has grown from around 1.7B in 1900 to 7.7B in 2020. Rapid decrease in infant mortality rates, and increase in life expectancy, due to the advancements made in medicine and health care, are some of the major reasons for this increase. The growth was fuelled by India and China, and slowly the African countries have started to lead the growth. Is this rapid population increase a reason. Yes, definitely, but it may not be the only reason. We all know by now the dire consequences of the one child policy in China; though it drastically controlled the population growth rate. 

By now, it is clear that we need Universal prosperity for us to have prosperity in our lives. Everything else, is short lived. So what should the Governments across the world do? I may not be experienced enough the impossible question of inclusive growth. But over the past few years, some of the measures taken in India are bang in the right direction. Though I did not understand them then, I now feel it is commendable for Governments to take welfare measures within their limited means. 

- MNREGA was launched in 2005 to give employment with local development activities

- Education for all scheme was launched by the former CM of AP, Dr YSR in 2006, where the fees is paid by the Government till Graduation. 

- Health for all scheme was launched in 2007 again by the same CM, where even treatment in private hospitals is paid by the Government

- Prime Minister's Kisan Samman Nidhi and multiple other schemes which create a safety net for the farmers in India
- Very encouraging to see the Government schools in Delhi rise up to the standards of private schools

Not only these, some of the regulations in various industries ensured that the consumers are not taken for a ride. We can all think that these are unnecessary red tape of license raj, but Im now confident that they are there to stop India from becoming another US. 

- There are price caps for most drugs

- Taxi fares are capped. We cant just follow the demand model, even if it is practical.

- Strong regulations from telecom to real estate to even FMCG, not only protects consumer's interests but also to prevent predatory pricing, thus preventing monopolies. 

But are these enough, definitely not. Only Welfare schemes, or strides in Education and Healthcare are not enough. How can Governments bridge the gap between the rich and the poor, is going to be the key factor in the direction of inclusive growth. The measures taken by Governments are hardly reaching the masses, leave alone making the difference. In the 21st century, let us all demand these from our Governments; even if we don't need these, Universal prosperity can be the only way we can truly have peace and happiness.